From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”