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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to take up the role over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is occurring in France, now on its sixth prime minister in 24 months – with three in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for many years – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: from the moment Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly separated into three opposing factions – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”