Foreign Office Cautioned Against Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.